President Barack Obama was poised, confident, even laughing at times during his 60 Minutes interview Sunday night. He expressed confidence in his Treasury Secretary, and even had cautious optimism for the economy. Mortgage rates are historically low, credit-worthy Americans are rushing to refinance their home loans to lower their monthly payments, (if you have not yet, check it out) and finally, look how the President responded to this question by CBS' Steve Kroft:
“Were you surprised at the depth of this recession when you got here? Did you know it was this bad?”
President Obama: “Now–there's a potential silver– silver lining, which may be that things are so accelerated now, the modern economy is so intertwined and– and wired, that things happen really fast– for ill, but things may recover faster than they have in the past”.
Could that be true? That as devastating as the downturn has been, the recovery could be just as swift? We decided to ask our sources and share there answers with you.
Lakshman Acuthan, Economic Cycle Research Institute: "Yes, a v-shaped recovery is more likely than people think, but not because of modern economy. This is the way business cycles have always worked."
Richard Yamarone, Argus Research: "We're much more dynamic than we were a few years back. Much more services- and technologically-based. That may exacerbate downturns, and expedite recoveries. I think there may be something to this. I don't know if there's been any formal research written about this – academic, that is."
Dan Clifton, Strategas Research Partners: "Good catch – this is what the Administration has been saying in their budget documents – sharp downturns equal sharp recovery – we generally do not see it that way. The actions by the government are not allowing individuals and business to fully delever and consumer spending as pct of gdp still remains historically high – we are see a somewhat muted recovery with possible strong quarters of growth in between. So it'll be more like fits and starts."